Portland Fire 2027 Draft Lottery: Odds, Possible Picks and How to Watch
On November 15, 2026, seven teams find out where they pick in April. Portland goes in with 52 of 1,000 combinations, a 5.2% shot at No. 1, after a 17-27 expansion season. The honest expectation: No. 5. The dream: a top-two pick, which happens about 12 times in 100.
Odds verified against wnba.com, November 7, 2026
How to Watch the Lottery
November 15, 2026, 7:30 to 8:00 p.m. ET (4:30 PM PT in Portland), on ESPN (TSN in Canada), right after UConn vs. Louisville.
The Odds, Team by Team
Seven teams, 1,000 combinations. Portland and Toronto, the two 2026 expansion teams, are slotted by their 2026 records only. Everyone else uses 2025 and 2026 combined.
| Team | Record used | Combinations | Chance at No. 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 22-66 | 329 | 32.9% |
| Toronto | 11-33 | 329 | 32.9% |
| Washington (from Chicago) | 26-62 | 161 | 16.1% |
| Seattle | 31-57 | 93 | 9.3% |
| Portland | 17-27 | 52 | 5.2% |
| Los Angeles | 37-51 | 24 | 2.4% |
| Los Angeles (from Phoenix) | 43-45 | 12 | 1.2% |
Picks 1 and 2 are drawn. Picks 3 through 7 go to the remaining lottery teams in order of worst cumulative winning percentage. Expansion teams Portland and Toronto use 2026 records only; the other five use combined 2025-2026 records. Houston cannot fall below third; Toronto is guaranteed at least fourth.
Every Place the Fire Can Land
Only two lottery teams had better records than Portland (both of them Los Angeles picks), which is why the Fire can't fall past No. 7, and why No. 5 is the overwhelming favorite. This table is our math from the published odds and rules (it assumes pick No. 2 is redrawn if it lands on the No. 1 team). Only the No. 1 figure is the league's own.
| Portland picks | How it happens | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| No. 1 | Portland wins the first draw | 5.2% |
| No. 2 | Portland wins the second draw | 6.8% |
| No. 5 | Two teams with worse records win the draws | 80.0% |
| No. 6 | One of the two Los Angeles picks jumps into the top two | 7.9% |
| No. 7 | Both Los Angeles picks jump into the top two | 0.1% |
What It Means for Year Two
A 17-27 first season bought Portland one of seven lottery tickets. The likeliest result is a top-five pick, which is a real asset for a second-year roster. Our take (opinion, no scouting department here): the next jump probably comes as much from player development and free agency as from April. The draft itself is April 12, 2027.
Thinking about 2027 seats? The Fire have 2027 season memberships on sale now. Our Moda Center guide covers what game night is actually like.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2027 WNBA Draft Lottery?
The lottery is on November 15, 2026, from 7:30 to 8:00 p.m. ET (4:30 PM PT), on ESPN in the U.S. and TSN in Canada.
What are the Portland Fire's draft lottery odds?
Portland has 52 of 1,000 combinations, a 5.2% chance at the No. 1 pick, the fifth-best odds of the seven lottery teams. As an expansion team, its odds are based only on its 2026 record (17-27).
Where can the Portland Fire pick in the 2027 WNBA Draft?
By the league's rules Portland can land No. 1, No. 2, No. 5, No. 6, No. 7. Our math puts No. 5 as the likeliest outcome at about 80.0%, with roughly a 12.0% chance of a top-two pick.
When is the 2027 WNBA Draft?
The 2027 WNBA Draft is April 12, 2027.
Source: WNBA announcement of the 2027 Draft Lottery. More Fire: team hub, roster, 2026 results, how the roster was built.